HOLLYWOOD—I feel like every single year; the Best Actor and Best Actress Oscar race always comes down to two people; it is always a two-person race and everyone else is just lucky to be nominated. Let’s start our discussion with Best Actor, that is a race between Timothee Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown” and Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist.” We will talk about them more in a minute, but let’s talk about our other contenders.
You have Sebastian Stan who earned a nomination for his performance as current President Donald J. Trump. It is an impressive role, but I loved what Stan did so much more in “A Different Man.” It was more twisted, more chaotic and just a ton of layers that the public got to see from the actor. Then you have Colman Domingo who is a back-to-back nominee. Last year he was nominated for “Rustin” and this year for “Sing Sing.” Colman is a fantastic actor who is finally earning accolades after acting for years.
I wish this was his year, but it’s not, I do think 2026 might be his year as we see him take on the persona of Joe Jackson for the Michael Jackson biopic. Don’t be surprised if Domingo is nominated again in 2026, but perhaps in the Supporting Actor race. I personally will give the Oscar to Ralph Fiennes. Hard to believe this man doesn’t have an Oscar, and what he does in “Conclave” is epic. Soft, courageous, quiet, stern, the list can go on and on with his performance in a religious thriller to say the least.
I was glued to this character and this movie from start to finish and that is what a great actor does. However, the actor hasn’t gotten much love and to see him win an Oscar without picking up a single award throughout the entire awards season would be stunning, not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t think it ever has in Oscar history.
Back to our main heat between Chalamet and Brody. Chalamet is a very talented actor, and at the tender age of 29, he has already earned two Oscar nominations. He does envelop the role of Bob Dylan which the Academy loves. They love to give trophies to those who portray real-life figures, just look at Jamie Foxx, Charlize Theron, Julia Roberts, Rami Malek, Marcia Gay Harden, Hilary Swank, Jennifer Connelly, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, Sean Penn, Sandra Bullock, I can keep listing them off if you like, but you see my point.
The Academy loves this, me, not so much. Yes, it’s impressive to have the look, the mannerisms, hell even the diction, but I always find that as an impersonation, not a true embodiment of a character that you create from a piece of fiction that I find more impressive. This is not to take anything from Timothee and what he does in the movie because it’s awesome to watch, but Brody edges him out with a performance that has such a linger impact as a viewer with “The Brutalist.”
You just become so invested in the character and the plight he endures it just takes you on this amazing, devastating emotional rollercoaster and it’s just epic to witness. So, Brody for the win, but I would not be stunned with Chalamet having his name announced.
Now Best Actress, this is another two-person race suddenly after this past week. At first, I noted this was Demi Moore’s Oscar to lose for her performance in “The Substance,” however, Mikey Madison from “Anora” who is gaining some serious steam. She recently picked up the BAFTA for Best Actress and I wouldn’t call it a surprise because I just don’t see many members of BAFTA or AMPAS watching a body horror movie. The Academy has a finnicky relationship when it comes to horror; they like to act like it doesn’t exist or accolades can’t be given. Yes, people love to idolize “The Silence of the Lambs” but that was a psychological thriller, not pure horror.
Yes, Jodie Foster won the Oscar for Best Actress, but Ellen Burstyn was nominated for “The Exorcist” and she lost. So, for me just being nominated is NOT enough, I like to see victories. Moore, who has NEVER been nominated is the front-runner, and her performance in “The Substance” is unlike anything we’ve seen from the actress, but it has that gross-out factor that might turn away many Academy voters.
I just don’t see them watching the movie, which may give Madison a bump for “Anora.” Let’s talk about “Anora” because I’m hearing so much about this movie from critics, but I don’t hear ANYONE in the general public talking about this dark comedy. I expect to hear some buzz, but the critical love is one thing, but the public has to have some involvement in things also, right? Madison does deliver a tour-de force performance as a stripper who gets married to the son of a Russian oligarch. It is fun, mesmerizing to watch and full of intriguing antics.
Madison is hurt because she is an ingenue; she still has plenty of time to sink her teeth into some meaty roles. However, Moore’s chances for acting Oscar love are dwindling. Perhaps the darkest of the dark horses has to be Fernanda Torres who earned the Golden Globe for her role in “I’m Still Here,” and she has plenty of buzz behind her role which is a slow simmer of a burn but strikes you right in the heart where it should.
We don’t even need to talk about Karla Sofia Gascon, the star of “Emilia Perez” she tanked her chances and any sign of a win with those old-surfaced tweets, and she has been phased out of the Oscar campaign for her movie. I still question if she is even going to show up to the ceremony. With that said, our last contender is Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked” which I would argue any other year, she would be a bigger contender, but the nominees this year are an eclectic bunch, and Erivo doesn’t have the buzz that could catapult her to a victory. This her second Best Actress nomination, so I’m certain in the near future, she’ll get another shot at Oscar glory.
I know many are leaning towards Madison, but I am not ready to count out Moore. She has plenty of love in the industry and has plenty more connections than I think the other contenders have. This might be the Academy’s way of saying we appreciate your work in cinema and it’s time to honor you. I hate to say it, but at the end of the day, Oscar is a popularity contest. The more people you know and the more you campaign the better your chances. Sad to say, but it is the truth America.
