UNITED STATES—The concept of the gender gap in elections is not new; discourse began as far back as the 1980s, when pollsters realized the significance of the clear
difference in voting trends between men and women, in addition to simple voter turnout.
Individuals all vote a certain way for their unique reasons, but overall, women tend to vote Democrat, whilst men generally opt for the Republican candidate.
In this election, the gender gap may have an outsized effect. Issues that are particularly polarizing are front and center in the Trump vs. Harris race: abortion rights and potentially having the first woman president, for example.
Swing states are also predicted to be extremely close. The polls are far too close to call, which means that how women and men vote may ultimately be the difference maker in this seismic election.
Women Tend to Vote More than Men
In most polls, women are expected to vote for Kamala Harris, with issues like abortion rights a central concern. In recent elections, women have affected the gender gap simply by turning out to vote. In the last election, women accounted for 55% of the overall electorate.
With the composition of the American electorate looking very similar to four years ago, it would be reasonable to expect that Harris will grab Biden’s key states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
It all comes down to the numbers, and in this election, the differences may be minute. The 2020 election was so hotly contested partly because of these small differences which pushed the election in Biden’s favor. In Wisconsin, for instance, he won by just over 20-thousand votes.
However, despite the fact women are expected to turn out to vote in larger numbers, the betting odds for the presidency currently tend to favor Donald Trump. The so-called “male gender gap” may shed further light on why this may be the case.
The Male Gender Gap
Bryan Lanza, who works as a senior advisor for the Trump campaign, believes that the “male gender gap” will have a key positive effect on the election for the Republicans.
Traditionally, men under 30 have tended to vote Democrat. In this cycle, however, we may be seeing something entirely different. Men are increasingly turning to Trump and perceived traditional values.
Described by some outlets as the so-called “bro vote”, some Americans lean towards Trump not necessarily because of his stance on immigration or the economy, but instead because of his strength, focus on family values, and masculinity.
Because Trump knows that he is not polling well with women, at least to get their majority vote, he is increasingly pandering to non-traditional male voters. He has turned to YouTubers, influencers, and podcasters to relay his message.
Perhaps the most significant example of that was his recent appearance on the biggest podcast in America, The Joe Rogan Experience. The show has significant reach, particularly with men in the 18-34 age range, a key demographic for the Trump campaign.
Polls may be underestimating just how many young men are turning away from Democrats to support Trump. It may just be enough to overturn the traditionally higher woman turnout, plus the fact there are simply more women in the American population (especially amongst the elderly).
Is Nonresponse Bias Affecting Polls?
During election season, polls become one of the most important news items. We obsess over the latest polls analyzed by companies like FiveThirtyEight from ABC News, carefully teasing out the potential new president from vast swathes of data.
But in this election, in particular, the polls may be deceiving. Nonresponse bias, where subjects simply refuse to take part, is suspected to be rife. Nate Silver, the statistician who famously predicted the outcome of 49/50 states in the 2008 election, believes that many Trump supporters do not take part in polling.
Nonresponse bias is in part due to a trending mistrust of traditional news outlets, but there is also something else, according to many Democrats: hidden misogyny. As Katty Kay, US Special Correspondent for the BBC has pointed out, no one wants to openly admit to a pollster that they would prefer not to have a woman in the White House.
The Harris campaign is not declaring it publicly, but there are real fears that a deep-seated “hidden sexism” will prevent Americans from voting her into the White House.
The Trump camp has another explanation: Kamala Harris is simply not ready for the White House, nor does she have the right credentials to convince voters.
It has nothing to do with the fact she is a woman. Ultimately, it is going to go down to the wire. There are key issues that will swing the election, and the gender gap is certainly going to affect the results, but in which direction will it fall? We will all have to wait until November 5.
