UNITED STATES—The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in earnest on Friday when USA face Paraguay in Group D at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles (9pm PT / 12am ET). Only the top two teams advance from a group that also includes Australia and Turkey, making this opener far more significant than a routine first fixture. Drop points here and Pochettino’s side will spend the rest of the group stage under pressure they should not need.

What’s at stake in Group D

USA enter as heavy favorites and the obvious home side in a tournament they are co-hosting. SoFi Stadium holds close to 70,000 and the crowd will be overwhelmingly pro-American — a genuine advantage, but also a weight. Host nations have won or drawn roughly 70% of their group stage openers in the last four World Cups. The flipside: when they lose, the tournament narrative shifts overnight. A defeat on Friday does not eliminate USA, but it turns what should be a manageable group into a three-game fight from behind.

Paraguay are not tourists. They finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying and Gustavo Alfaro has built a side that does not care about possession stats. They defend deep, commit to the set piece and wait. That approach beat Argentina 2-1 during qualifying, which is the only number that matters when assessing how dangerous they are.

USA team news and predicted lineup

Pochettino has settled on a back three: Freese in goal; Freeman, Miles Robinson and Tim Ream across the defence; Dest and Antonee Robinson as wingbacks; Adams and McKennie holding midfield; Tillman in the ten role; Pulisic and Balogun up front. Chris Richards remains a doubt after an ankle problem and is unlikely to start.

The 2-1 friendly defeat to Germany last week is worth reading carefully. USA pressed well in the first half and created enough — the problems came in transition, where gaps behind the wingbacks let Germany exploit the channels. Paraguay do not have Germany’s forward quality, but Almirón running in behind a high line is a genuine threat. The back three needs to hold its shape without pushing up in unison.

Pulisic is the danger man in both directions: capable of unlocking a low block with movement and set piece delivery, disciplined enough to track back. Watch him in the left half-space.

Paraguay scouting

Alfaro lines up in a 4-4-2 that compresses into a mid-block off the ball. Gill in goal; Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Alderete and Alonso at the back; Bobadilla and Cubas anchoring midfield; Diego Gomez and Almirón wide; Enciso behind Sanabria. Enciso carries a minor quad issue from the warm-up win over Nicaragua but is expected to feature.

The name to know is Miguel Almirón. A decade across South American football, MLS and Newcastle has produced a player who combines relentless work rate with the ability to produce a moment from nothing. He is Paraguay’s most likely source of a goal against the run of play, and USA’s wingbacks will have to account for him without losing their attacking position.

The result that best explains Paraguay’s ceiling is the 2-1 win over Argentina in qualifying. They are not here to make up the numbers.

Where this match will be decided

Three duels will define the outcome. The first is about tempo: USA want to press high and force mistakes; Paraguay want to absorb and play direct to Sanabria. Whoever controls the first fifteen minutes controls the emotional register of the game — and the home crowd will either amplify USA’s press or start fidgeting.

The second is on USA’s right side. Dest pushing forward and Pulisic cutting inside leaves space for Almirón to run at Miles Robinson in behind. If Robinson narrows to cover Pulisic’s movement, that channel opens.

The third is set pieces. Paraguay’s best qualifying results came through corners and free kicks. Gustavo Gomez and Alderete are both physical at dead balls. USA’s zonal marking was exposed aerially against Germany — if Ream goes with Sanabria, Gomez can arrive free at the back post. USA still start as clear favorites, and FortuneJack’s World Cup 2026 hub has the full Group D lines if you want to see where the market sits on each of these scenarios.

Head-to-head and prediction

The last time these teams met at a World Cup was 1930 — a 3-0 USA win in Montevideo. The more relevant data point is the November 2025 friendly: USA won 2-1 in a match that reflects exactly what this preview projects. USA controlled the play but Paraguay created enough to make it uncomfortable.

USA win 2-1. Home advantage, Pulisic’s quality in the final third and Paraguay’s limited creative firepower outside of Almirón all point in the same direction. The margin will be tight — Paraguay will not concede early and open the game — but the hosts have too much quality in the right positions to drop points at home in the opener.