HOLLYWOOD—Well it’s that time of the year. Awards season is in full force and the pinnacle of them all is the Academy Awards. Every year film enthusiasts including myself attempt to guess nominees in some of the top categories, but when it comes to the Academy always expect a curveball. They’re not always as predictable as everyone thinks. Ever since the Academy changed the rules to allow 10 best picture nominees, it’s become a bit difficult to discover who’ll reign supreme.
So let’s take a look at contenders who are likely to be nominated for Best Picture. First up, there are a few films that are definite locks. If the field wasn’t broadened to 10 nominees these are likely to be the top five contenders: “Inception,” “The Social Network,” “The King’s Speech,” “Black Swan” and “The Fighter.” Of course a few people will disagree with my choices, but these films stand out amongst the bunch and all are riveting to say the least. The final five slots are likely to include the following: “The Kids Are All Right,” “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit,” “127 Hours” and I’d love to see “Rabbit Hole” sneak in a nomination. With so many film’s in contention those final five spots are anyone’s guess at the moment, so expect a surprise or two.
The nominees for Best Actress are virtual locks except for the fifth slot. Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right,” Natalie Portman “Black Swan,” Jennifer Lawrence “Winter’s Bone” and Nicole Kidman “Rabbit Hole” are all guaranteed picks since they were already nominated for a Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild Award and countless other critics awards. It’s the final slot that has everyone’s mind churning. Halle Berry is astonishing in “Frankie and Alice,” Michelle Williams is flawless in “Blue Valentine,” Hilary Swank is triumphant in “Conviction” and there’s Julianne Moore also from “The Kids Are All Right.” The final slot is going to be a surprise that will have people talking for days, so I’m putting my money on Julianne Moore.
Best Actor also appears to be an uphill battle with Colin Firth “The King’s Speech,” Jesse Eisenberg “The Social Network” and James Franco “127 Hours” as locks, but the last two spots are open. While many are expecting Jeff Bridges to capture another nomination for “True Grit,” I’m not so sure. The same could apply for Robert Duvall. I think Mark Wahlberg “The Fighter” and Ryan Gosling “Blue Valentine” will take those final spots.
The Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories also have favorites that are sure to be nominated. For Best Supporting Actor expect Christian Bale “The Fighter,” Geoffrey Rush “The King’s Speech” and Jeremy Renner “The Town” to nab nominations. All three were exceptional in their roles and catapulted their films to another level. The final two spots are where things take an interesting turn because the Academy tends to have a surprise or two with nominations. I expect Andrew Garfield or Armie Hammer from “The Social Network” to be nominated, while the fifth spot is a duel between Michael Douglas for “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” and John Hawkes “Winter’s Bone,” who was amazing. I’m giving Douglas a slight edge.
Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will battle in the Best Supporting Actress category for their explosive performances in “The Fighter.” Joining them in that category will be Helena Bonham Carter for “The King’s Speech” and Mila Kunis for “Black Swan.” Kunis was incredible in the film, so I’d find it boggling not to see her nominated. That final spot is likely to go to either newcomer Hailee Steinfeld for “True Grit” or a previous winner Dianne Wiest for her performance in “Rabbit Hole.” Steinfeld has the edge with “True Grit’s” amazing box office haul, but all could change with “Rabbit Hole” opening on January 14.
Let’s round out the predictions with those who will be vying for Best Director: David Fincher “The Social Network,” Tom Hooper “The King’s Speech” and Christopher Nolan. Oddly, Nolan was not nominated for his 2008 classic “The Dark Knight” but will get nominated for his stellar “Inception.” Darren Aronofsky is a likely candidate for “Black Swan” because the indie film is generating some major dollars and buzz at theaters. The final spot is a three-way battle between two previous winners and a possible first-time nominee, Joel and Ethan Coel for “True Grit,” Danny Boyle for “127 Hours” and David O. Russell for “The Fighter.” My instinct tells me the Coen’s won’t be nominated, and while “True Grit” is doing well at the box office that doesn’t guarantee a nomination as Christopher Nolan can attest with his film “The Dark Knight.” It’s likely to be between Boyle and Russell, I like Russell’s chances, but Boyle’s “127 Hours” is unflinching in capturing a certain element of realism that sets it apart. Boyle is my choice, but Russell is on his tail so I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
So those are my picks for nominees, anyone up to challenge my picks? We’ll find out if I’m right on Tuesday, January 25, when the Oscar nominations are announced bright and early at 5:30 a.m. PST/8:30 a.m. EST. Will you be watching?
