HOLLYWOOD—I have always been intrigued by the Best Director race at the Oscars. I know the selection of who is nominated is always up for discussion because the decision is done by members of the Director’s Branch, which let’s face it is predominately, old White males. There is not a lot of diversity in that group, no matter how we try to make it appear otherwise. With that said, once the nominees are selected, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences as a WHOLE determine the winner.

So, who will be victorious in 2025? I have some ideas, but this is one where I can’t definitively say I know who the winner will be. If you’re basing things on Awards Season up to this point, it looks like Sean Baker should be the victor for “Anora,” but you ask the question what makes him the Best Director, if it’s a solid movie, but nothing technically savvy about how it was directed transpired. I guess, when I think of directing, I’m looking at something not seen before, take the likes of “Gravity” or “Oppenheimer” which had its directors walk away with the top prize. Movies that did something you’ve never seen before in the cinematic arena.

I don’t think a great movie alone equates to Best Director. Which brings us to the discussion of the other nominees. If Baker has competition, and he does, his biggest opponent might be Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.” It is indeed an epic three hour and 35-minute flick, that has some of the best cinematography I have seen. But again, there is already a category for Best Cinematography, but I’d argue that plays a role with directing because those shots have a way of impacting the movie’s overall punch to the viewer.

He did win the Golden Globe Award, and he also picked up the BAFTA for Best Director, so he has some backing, but does he have enough to push him to the actual win? One who was considered the front-runner at the start of Awards Season was Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Perez,” but all that momentum went down the toilet with the scandal involving the musical’s star Karla Sofia Gascon. Audiard does do something wicked behind the camera with this musical about a drug lord that is transitioning to become a woman, but once the scandal was unleashed it was already too late.

Then you have Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance.” She is just one of a handful of women who have been nominated for Best Director, making the situation worse is that we have only had three women ACTUALLY win the Best Director Oscar in its 97 years. That says a lot. The movie is body horror, and AMPAS can be a bit snobby when it comes to horror. I can see some watching the movie, and I can see others just say, it ain’t happening. Would it be a stunner of stunners if she were to win the prize? Yes, but it would take a massive miracle like votes being split between Baker and Corbet for someone like Fargeat to sneak in with a victory.

Our last contender for Best Director is James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown.” This was the shocker for me when the nominations were announced. The movie is a favorite of the public, and critics are backing the performances of Timothee Chalamet and Monica Barbaro. Notably Chalamet just won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Male Actor in a Leading Role, so that gives Mangold a bit of momentum I think. Could he win? Yes, but it doesn’t feel likely, but with Oscar nothing is as predictable when you don’t have a film like “Titanic” that just blows everything else in contention out of the water.

Yeah, for 2025, Baker is the favorite, Corbet is the dark horse, and Mangold is the very dark horse, but as a betting man I think this is Baker’s to lose on popularity, but if the Academy tends to do what I think they do, Corbet might be the one walking away with the big prize, but we shall see.